Blog Bubble Bursting? Get a Grip

"The blogosphere is falling! The blogosphere is falling!" Well, so says Daniel Gross in Slate's "Twilight of the Blogs" -- the latest in a flurry of mainstream media articles about how the business potential of weblogs is allegedly imploding.

Actually, the above was a paraphrase. Here's what Gross actually said:

"As a cultural phenomenon, blogs are in their gangly adolescence. Every day, thousands of people around the world launch their blogs on LiveJournal or the Iranian equivalent. But as businesses, blogs may have peaked. There are troubling signs—akin to the 1999 warnings about the Internet bubble—that suggest blogs have just hit their top."

This is only true if one considers the primary -- and sole -- business potential of blogs hinged on direct monetization strategies such as ads, subscriptions, and sponsorships. OK, I'd expect such a shortsighted view from someone who works within the mainstream media structure, which derives its revenue mainly from ads.

But here's the bigger picture of blogs and business value...

First of all, blogs are not the point. Blogs are but one currently popular form of conversational media  -- communication channels that make conversation and connection as visible and powerful as they deserve to be. Blogs are not the only fast-growing form of conversational media. Forums, wikis, e-mail lists, "social software," etc. are all increasing in popularity, too.

New and better forms  of conversational media are being invented daily. Heck, even podcasting is starting to become more conversational, thanks to Odeo's new audio comments feature.

Inevitably, blogs will be superceded by whatever else is cool, usable, and new in conversational media. That's fine. Conversational media was always the bigger deal.

But in the meantime, before blogs evolve into the next big step in conversational media, don't underestimate their value -- especially their business value.

Yes, it's true that directly monetizing blogs is problematic. That's why, so far, I've steered clear of "blog networks"  and similar schemes. I believe that can work, but it takes a ton of effort, skill, and time, and it probably can't be done on a massive scale. (I may be wrong about that, but so far that's what the marketplace has shown, I think.)

However, the true business value of blogs -- and the reason why every company should be hiring people skilled in conversational media to monitor relevant conversations -- is that blogs can directly and effectively support every business goal while strengthening the relationships upon which all business depends.

In short, stop viewing blogs as "bells and whistles" or side projects, and start viewing them as core systems.

Infrastructure isn't generally glamorous. (Remember that scene in "The Jerk" when Steve Martin was running around yelling ecstatically, "The new phone book is here! I'm SOMEBODY!") Nor does infrastructure tend to be a direct revenue source. So what? It's crucial.

Do you worry about whether your telephones and computers are direct revenue producers? Do you calculate the ROI on the door to your office? Probably not. Would you ever consider doing business without either? Yeah, I'd like to see you try.

Behind the blog hype (and yes, there is a lot of blog hype), the tools and channels of conversational media are fast becoming as crucial to the fabric of business and the economy as doors and phones.

And if you don't believe me, read Dana Blankenhorn, Mathew Ingram, and Glenn Harlan Reynolds. They nailed it even better.

Then chill out and proceed with your blog and your other conversational media efforts without fear or guilt. Don't let Chicken Little shake you.

Comments

[Darius]

Great post Amy.

The tool doesn't matter. What matters is the conversation the tool supports.

That said, wikis, blogs, forums... all need a face-lift. Or maybe there's something new coming. It's all too intimidating for many non-techies. I think the "hype" makes it worse.

[Tom Vilot]

> It's all too intimidating for many non-techies.

Yes, but I think what is intimidating for non-techies is the terminology. I don't know how many people I have come across, for example, who think podcasts are 'an Apple iPod thing.'

And blogs are *really* nothing more than web pages. That's all they are. That plus a little XML file that tells what's there. What's more important is the whole technical infrastructure that allows the appearance of a push technology, even though all the feedreaders are doing is polling.

All this is irrelevant. People are put off and confused by acronyms and names for things. XML HTTP HTML Podcast, etc.

People understand *concepts.* Not jargon. Tell 'em it's a web page that comes to their "inbox" when it changes, and they get it. Tell them it's an XML file that is picked up through a polling mechanism and then this and that and ..... forget it!

[Paul Conley]

Hi Amy,
Well said. I use my blog just as I use my phone, my desk, my notebook, etc. For me, the blog is part of what I do. But it's not the goal. It's certainly not the business goal. And that's what folks like the Slate writer seem not to be able to grasp. When a company like Stonyfield Yogurt enters the blogging world, it's not to make money. It's to build a brand, to converse with customers.
At the same time, there are people who are using blogging software to build journalism/publishing companies. I applaud those people. But I would never suggest that those are the only people who are using blogs correctly. I'd never suggest that everyone who hasn't monetized their blogs stop publishing them any more than I would suggest that only telemarketing firms use telephones.

[Steve Bridger]

"Inevitably, blogs will be superceded by whatever else is cool, usable, and new in conversational media. That's fine. Conversational media was always the bigger deal."

Amy, yet again...right on the money.

Steve

[Ephraim Cohen]

I thought blogs were way overhyped to begin with and now I think the backlash will be far too strong. Dana Blankenhorn says it best: “these trends will boom, bust, conslidate and become ingrained in our daily lives…”). Blogs are already becoming ingrained, we’re just too busy talking about them to notice.